This is a bad signing because...
The Mariners have one player on the roster under contract beyond 2014: Felix Hernandez. King Felix is far and away the most valuable player at Safeco, but the Mariners have up-and-coming players that are about to start earning larger paychecks. Hisashi Iwakuma will be a very important resign, even with the Mariners' eye-opening pitching depth. Kyle Seager is the future of third base, and should be priority 1A behind Iwakuma. Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders will get long looks, as well. With Cano taking up approximately $24 million annually in cap space, and Felix earning 25 million per year, things might be tight financially. Unless Iwakuma and Seager take home town discounts, the Mariners will have quite a bit of money locked up in only a few players. This can be a killer for small to mid-market sized teams.
This is a great signing because...
The Mariners have the frontline pitching. Felix Hernandez is among the elite pitchers in baseball, and might still be underrated. The young, huge upside pitching is there; Taijuan Walker, James Paxton and Danny Hultzen give the Mariners farm system pitching depth that nearly every team envies. What isn't there is offense. In 2013, Seattle ranked in the bottom third in nearly every significant offensive category. Cano is the type of player that can step in and immediately boost the teams on-base percentage (where the team ranked 26th in 2013), can provide a 100 RBI season (Seattle ranked 21st in RBI's), and can make a serious contribution in terms of slugging percentage (where Seattle was ranked 20th).
This could lead to...
There is a growing sentiment around baseball that a small market team signing a big market free agent will make the dominos fall; more large market players will follow in their footsteps and want to play for small clubs. This concept has caught fire in the hours since Cano inked his deal with the Mariners. Executives are now telling reporters that they expect much more to come from Seattle. They expect premiere free agents (or what is left of them) to visit with the Mariners. Possible additions later in this offseason could include the king of on-base percentage, Shin Soo Choo, utility man Omar Infante, or buy-low All Star Nelson Cruz. Any of the three would make an already solid off season into a franchise changing one.
If they can't bring in another premiere free agent...
If Seattle doesn't make another significant transaction, and leaves the team as is, this off season will go down as a "could have been". If Choo, Infante, or Cruz don't end up at Safeco, trades need to be made. One trade being discussed league wide involves Rays ace and 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner David Price. A rotation that included King Felix, Iwakuma, and Price would be unfair to hitters Walker, Hultzen, and Paxton would be included in that list if there was any way Seattle could keep that trifecta. That seems unrealistic, though. Walker would almost certainly be shipped to Tampa Bay, along with a host of others. Walker projects to be an ace, front line starter, is very young, and is under team control. Price, on the other hand, becomes a free agent in 2016. He is just entering his prime, and is a top 3-5 pitcher in all of baseball. Is it better to have young, huge upside players under team control, or a super star for possibly only three years? This is the decision the Mariners' front office will likely be faced with.
This looks just like the Albert Pujols deal...
From a monetary perspective, Cano's deal looks very similar to the contract that is going to cripple the Los Angeles Angels for the next 8 years. The few fans opposed to this acquisition are using the Pujols' mistake as a sign of imminent doom for the Mariners. Before jumping off the cliff, though, look carefully at the career numbers of each player. Per Baseball Reference, Pujols has declined sharply in every category since 2009. His home run totals, batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage have decreased every year since '09. Cano has yet to show any signs of regression. Cano is, and has been, the model of consistency. Anyone capable of reading a stats sheet could see that Pujols' was on a decline, and should have been offered a short term deal. That case can not be made for the Mariners' new second baseman, though.
How this impacts other Mariners...
Fans looking forward to seeing Nick Franklin take over at second base are out of luck, as that experiment is officially over. Franklin was expected to be the second baseman of the future in Seattle, especially after the Dustin Ackley failure. Franklin will almost certainly be shopped, and could be a part of the aforementioned Price trade.
Friday, December 6, 2013
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Rising Tide
From the outside, the Seattle Mariners 2013 season looks like one to be quickly forgotten about.
The team finished second to last in the AL West with 71 wins, topping only the lowly Houston Astros. Fans grew even more dismayed with manager Eric Wedge, who looks to have overstayed his welcome in yet another city. Dustin Ackley failed to have the breakout season that was expected of him, hitting only .253 and bouncing back and forth between Tacoma and Seattle. Franklin Gutierrez furthered the theory that he is in fact made of glass, and Raul Ibanez got another year older.
All that aside, no one expected the Mariners to compete this year. 2013 was intended to be a year for player development where, overall, the Mariners saw resounding success. Late season call ups Taijuan Walker and James Paxton were very successful in limited time, and both look to be top of the rotation quality starters in the very near future at Safeco. The only negative factor in the equation is Danny Hultzen, who is going to see Dr. James Andrews about a shoulder injury.
Hisashi Iwakuma quietly had a very solid 2012 season, and emerged as an ace in 2013. Kuma won 14 games, posted a 2.66 ERA, and had a 4.2 WAR in 219 innings. Every indication is that he will continue to blow away hitters with relative ease.
Felix Hernandez had another mind-boggling 2013 season as the face of the Mariners. Though his fastball dropped off drastically in velocity (FBv dropped from 96 to 92 mph), he had the highest Swing-Strike rate of his career. Not only that, but his changeup found the lost velocity from the fastball, averaging approximately four more mph than his career average. This means that King Felix has evolved from an elite thrower to an elite pitcher. He no longer relies on radar-gun-breaking velocity, but on phenomenal control to dominate lineups.
To summarize, the Mariners should be going into next season with a pitching rotation of:
Felix Hernandez
Hisashi Iwakuma
Taijuan Walker
James Paxton
Erasmo Ramirez/Joe Saunders
That rotation can match any in baseball. Whether the Mariners compete in the West next year depends almost entirely on their offense.
Brad Miller could finally be the answer at shortstop, making the most of his time in Seattle. In 306 at bats, Miller showed some pop, hitting eight big flies. All indications are that Mike Zunino will be the catcher of the future, as well. Despite Zunino, the Mariners are rumored to be front runners for Cuban defect catcher Yenier Bello.
The Mariners have some decent pieces offensively. Third baseman Kyle Seager lived up to expectations, and looks to be a cornerstone of the future offensively. First baseman Kendrys Morales put together a nice season as well, hitting 23 home runs in his first season in Seattle. Justin Smoak stayed true to form, hitting 20 home runs while striking out at a 20% clip.
The bulk of the Mariners offense revolves around the long ball, while seemingly throwing numbers like on-base percentage to the wind. Recent World Series winners have shown that OBP is definitely the way to go, and it could be a huge issue going forward for the Mariners. Adding to the problem is that the Mariners have no immediate answer in their minor league system. Utility player Stefen Romero might change that mold slightly, but he seems to fit in with the Morales group.
Where do the Mariners turn in the offseason?
General Manager Jack Zduriencik has a wealth of pitching prospects that could be dealt in the offseason to bring in some immediate impact bats. Robinson Cano would be a match made in heaven for the Mariners, but there is no way that they would be willing to pay the sure-to-be record setting deal he is about to get. Outfielder Shin Soo Choo could be an equally solid, and much more plausible move, if the Reds elect not to resign him. His.423 OBP would obviously add a ton to the Mariners lineup. He wouldn't likely be too far out of their price range either, though he could draw a bidding war.
The Mariners have won half the battle, assembling a pitching staff capable of dropping jaws. This offseason could be crucial for them in terms of adding offense though. A couple of decent signings, such as Choo, could very easily put the M's in the hunt for the West next year.
The team finished second to last in the AL West with 71 wins, topping only the lowly Houston Astros. Fans grew even more dismayed with manager Eric Wedge, who looks to have overstayed his welcome in yet another city. Dustin Ackley failed to have the breakout season that was expected of him, hitting only .253 and bouncing back and forth between Tacoma and Seattle. Franklin Gutierrez furthered the theory that he is in fact made of glass, and Raul Ibanez got another year older.
All that aside, no one expected the Mariners to compete this year. 2013 was intended to be a year for player development where, overall, the Mariners saw resounding success. Late season call ups Taijuan Walker and James Paxton were very successful in limited time, and both look to be top of the rotation quality starters in the very near future at Safeco. The only negative factor in the equation is Danny Hultzen, who is going to see Dr. James Andrews about a shoulder injury.
Hisashi Iwakuma quietly had a very solid 2012 season, and emerged as an ace in 2013. Kuma won 14 games, posted a 2.66 ERA, and had a 4.2 WAR in 219 innings. Every indication is that he will continue to blow away hitters with relative ease.
Felix Hernandez had another mind-boggling 2013 season as the face of the Mariners. Though his fastball dropped off drastically in velocity (FBv dropped from 96 to 92 mph), he had the highest Swing-Strike rate of his career. Not only that, but his changeup found the lost velocity from the fastball, averaging approximately four more mph than his career average. This means that King Felix has evolved from an elite thrower to an elite pitcher. He no longer relies on radar-gun-breaking velocity, but on phenomenal control to dominate lineups.
To summarize, the Mariners should be going into next season with a pitching rotation of:
Felix Hernandez
Hisashi Iwakuma
Taijuan Walker
James Paxton
Erasmo Ramirez/Joe Saunders
That rotation can match any in baseball. Whether the Mariners compete in the West next year depends almost entirely on their offense.
Brad Miller could finally be the answer at shortstop, making the most of his time in Seattle. In 306 at bats, Miller showed some pop, hitting eight big flies. All indications are that Mike Zunino will be the catcher of the future, as well. Despite Zunino, the Mariners are rumored to be front runners for Cuban defect catcher Yenier Bello.
The Mariners have some decent pieces offensively. Third baseman Kyle Seager lived up to expectations, and looks to be a cornerstone of the future offensively. First baseman Kendrys Morales put together a nice season as well, hitting 23 home runs in his first season in Seattle. Justin Smoak stayed true to form, hitting 20 home runs while striking out at a 20% clip.
The bulk of the Mariners offense revolves around the long ball, while seemingly throwing numbers like on-base percentage to the wind. Recent World Series winners have shown that OBP is definitely the way to go, and it could be a huge issue going forward for the Mariners. Adding to the problem is that the Mariners have no immediate answer in their minor league system. Utility player Stefen Romero might change that mold slightly, but he seems to fit in with the Morales group.
Where do the Mariners turn in the offseason?
General Manager Jack Zduriencik has a wealth of pitching prospects that could be dealt in the offseason to bring in some immediate impact bats. Robinson Cano would be a match made in heaven for the Mariners, but there is no way that they would be willing to pay the sure-to-be record setting deal he is about to get. Outfielder Shin Soo Choo could be an equally solid, and much more plausible move, if the Reds elect not to resign him. His.423 OBP would obviously add a ton to the Mariners lineup. He wouldn't likely be too far out of their price range either, though he could draw a bidding war.
The Mariners have won half the battle, assembling a pitching staff capable of dropping jaws. This offseason could be crucial for them in terms of adding offense though. A couple of decent signings, such as Choo, could very easily put the M's in the hunt for the West next year.
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